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"Suddenly Recession Is On The Tip Of Everyone's Tongue... Wow, Did That Happen Fast!"
By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities
The Fed Dot Plod
Suddenly everyone is raising the number of Fed cuts this year and early next year. Without a doubt Friday's job report was Weak with Few Redeeming Qualities. While we argued that the Fed SHOULD have cut at the July meeting, there are several reasons why the market may be getting ahead of itself in terms of rate cuts and bond yields.
In any case, while last weekend's title of Baby Pool Closed for "Maintenance" may be even more appropriate this weekend (clearly something is going on that markets don't like), we are going with the Fed Dot Plod, because the Fed is now likely going to plod along slower than what the market priced in by the end of the week.
It is somewhat awkward to be bearish on the economy, while expecting the Fed to now disappoint, but we think there is evidence to support it.