On an annual basis, headline inflation was at 2.8%, while core was at 3.1%. Both also were 0.1 percentage point below the Wall Street consensus and the previous month's levels. Here we will cover the falling prices and projecting what can happen by this summer.

If inflation is under control below 2.0% then this would free the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. The Ten year treasuries are already down to 4.2% (down 0.6% or so) and continue to trend down. Ten year treasuries could be at 3.5% in the summer.

If the Fed Funds Rate is 4.0%:
30-Year Mortgage Rate: 5.5% to 5.8%

15-Year Mortgage Rate: 4.8% to 5.1%

Car Loan Rate (5-Year): 5.8% to 6.2%

If the Fed Funds Rate is 3.75%:
30-Year Mortgage Rate: 5.3% to 5.6%

15-Year Mortgage Rate: 4.6% to 4.9%

Car Loan Rate (5-Year): 5.6% to 6.0%

Truflation takes millions of realtime pricing measures while the BLS has about a 3-8 week lag on tens of thousand of prices. Truflation is ahead of the BLS CPI. Truflation last reported 2.8% inflation in January, 2025

The USDA reported egg inventory has increased by about 4%.

Eggprices.org report egg prices nationwide are down to $5.51 a dozen from a peak of $8.17.

There were a series of cullings of chickens for bird flu (total of 150 million killed with about 44 million in the last batch). The chicken being grown to replace those killed are maturing at different stages for the different cullings. If there were not another bird flu mass culling then full recovery of chicken populations would be about May to July.

At $5.51 per dozen in March 2025, that's roughly a 53% YoY increase from January 2024's $3.60/dozen. If prices return to normal by May-June, assume they drop to a pre-shock level of ~$3.00-$3.50/dozen. This 35-45% decline over 2-3 months would significantly reduce the food-at-home CPI sub-index, which weighs ~8% of the total CPI. A rough calculation suggests a 0.2-0.3 percentage point (ppt) drop in headline CPI from this alone, given eggs' outsized role in recent food inflation.