The United States is going to attack Iran in an attempt to create enough social disorder and chaos in Iran that the Shia Muslim clerics will be forced to disband the Islamic Republic. All of the US military pieces for this action are in place or shortly will be. The one wild card is Donald Trump. He has issued the Deployment Order and the US bases in the region have been flooded with the largest contingent of US combat air assets since the invasion of Iraq in March 2003.

There is a report tonight from the NY Times that :

Senior national security officials have told the president that any operation that aims to change the Iranian leadership is not guaranteed to be a success, the officials said. . . . "Diplomacy may give the U.S. more time to get its military ready, but it also gives Iran more time to plan its retaliation," said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins University. "Ultimately," he added, "the president has to weigh the cost of attacking Iran. Ironically his approach has made those costs more likely.

It is up to senior US military and intelligence officials to give Trump the hard truth — i.e., a US attack on Iran is unlikely to bring about a regime change, but it will ignite a massive Iranian retaliation that will cause significant US and Israeli casualties, and will likely lead to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. It is the last possibility that carries a potentially severe economic penalty.

Since February 17, 2026, oil futures' prices (primarily focusing on the benchmark WTI crude oil futures, as it's the most commonly referenced for "oil futures" in the US context) have risen significantly. From the Feb 17 close (~$62.30) to current levels (~$65.40 average), that's an increase of roughly +$3.10 per barrel, or about +5% in just 1–2 trading days. For Brent crude oil futures (global benchmark), prices rose to ~$70.35–$70.56 by Feb 18–19, a similar ~+4.3% gain on the 18th, now hovering near $70.60 (up ~$3.15 or +4.7% overall since Feb 17).

There is another indicator that something bad is afoot… The pizza joints near the Pentagon in Washington, DC, and CENTCOM headquarters at MacDill Air Force base are showing unusual spikes in activity… This fits a pattern observed on the eve of previous US military actions in Venezuela, Iran and Iraq.

Donald Trump is playing with fire. The US military is cocked and loaded… The remaining question is whether Donald Trump will pull the trigger. If he issues the Execute Order I think he will be signing the death warrant for his Presidency. This is no hyperbole… The fate of the world hangs in the balance.