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Before we roll around to the cash open on Monday, get your head in the game in a way the sell side or financial media isn't going to tell you about. We're at war with Iran, private credit could be the ice that breaks under the market, and a run on bank stocks appears to have started on Friday. I wanted to make sure these three articles are on your radar if you're trying to make sense of where markets head next.
First, what will the Iran war do to markets? The way I see it, there are two very different paths that are possible here. This piece walks through both scenarios — what to watch, how markets typically react to geopolitical shocks, and where the real risks may be hiding when trading opens — and lets you make up your own mind:
What War With Iran Means For Markets Monday
And the rest of the market finally appears to be noticing what I've been writing about for months. The selloff in BDCs, private credit and banks isn't random — it's a signal. In this breakdown, I connect the dots between tightening credit conditions, liquidity stress, and why weakness in financials can ripple outward far more quickly than investors expect.
Banks Sell Off Hard: This Is How Credit Cracks
Finally, a softer CPI print grabbed headlines earlier this month — but the hotter PPI report tells a more complicated story. This tension shouldn't be ignored. Inflation data is sending mixed signals, and that confusion matters for rates, equities, and positioning into the second half of the year.
Here's what else is new on the blog:
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