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Guest Post by Gold & Geopolitics
Yesterday I wrote that Trump needed a knockout or technical knockout in roughly two weeks. It's been three days. He's already moved the goalposts from four days to "four-to-five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer". Then, when pressed on timeline: "Whatever it takes". (Draghi didn't copyright it. Big mistake.)
"We will easily prevail", he added. Four American soldiers disagree. They're dead.

CENTCOM confirmed the fourth fatality this morning – a soldier who'd been seriously wounded during Iran's initial strikes and succumbed overnight. The wounded count has tripled from 5 to 18. And those are just the numbers they're releasing on day three of what was supposed to be a surgical operation.
Let's talk about the story of the day: three F-15s shot down. CENTCOM says they were "mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses" at 04:03 UTC. Friendly fire. An accident. These things happen in the fog of war.
Three of them. Simultaneously.
Kuwait's own military statement said aircraft "fell" over its territory. Fell. Not "were shot down by our air defences in an accident we deeply regret". Fell. Like they tripped. Kuwait didn't claim responsibility for shooting them. Kuwait said they crashed.