It may be that the US-Russia and US-Ukraine negotiations are going off the rails.

Meanwhile the US is anxious for Europe to take over responsibility for supporting Ukraine as Washington turns to the Middle East and Pacific regions. The Europeans then will need to decide if they are ready, willing and able to make up the difference.

One strategy for them is to try to secure western Ukraine, figuring the Russians will be successful east of the Dnieper, But that idea is not a cake walk and could trigger a wider conflict. Washington will have to make up its mind on what is next regarding Ukraine.

President Trump is complaining that the Russians are dragging out negotiations on a comprehensive ceasefire, and he is threatening Russia with new energy sanctions. The main feature of the threat from Trump is that countries that buy Russian oil will be cut off from trade with the US. This includes India and China.

US total goods trade with China was an estimated $582.4 billion in 2024. US goods exports to China in 2024 were $143.5 billion.

In 2023-24, the US was the largest trading partner of India with $119.71 billion bilateral trade in goods ($77.51 billion worth of exports, $42.19 billion of imports, with $35.31 billion trade surplus).

President Trump said he intended to speak to Russian President Putin soon (the exact timing of a phone call not revealed).

Both Ukraine and Russia are trying to position themselves as best they can before any ceasefire begins (if one actually occurs).

Russia has multiple military operations in Ukraine covering areas from Kursk on down through Luhansk and Donetsk, including Zaphorize and, possibly, Kherson. The Russians have also signaled their interest in Odesa which they claim is a Russian city.