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The Bond Market Is Suddenly More Concerned About Jobs than Inflation
US Treasury Yield Notes
Between August 5 and August 21, bond yields for US treasuries of 2 year duration or longer all rose.
The period between August 21 and September 2 was very painful for 30-year long bond holders but favorable for the rest.
Starting September 2, there was a bond market rally across the board.
Treasury Yield Changes Since September 2
What Happened?
The ISM report on September 2 showed weak hiring.
The BLS JOLTS repot on September 3 revealed unemployment was above job openings for the first time since the pandemic.
The ADP report on September 4 was weak, especially small businesses.
The nonfarm payroll report on September 5 was a disaster.
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September 3, 2025: ISM Manufacturing Down Sixth Month, Employment Weak, Prices High
Employment vs Order Backlog
Order backlogs have been in contraction for 35 straight months.
Manufacturers facing massive tariff uncertainties and declining order backlogs will not do much hiring.
September 3, 2025: The Unemployment Level Is Now Greater than Job Openings
Openings vs Unemployment Level
Job Openings: 7.18 million
Unemployment Level: 7.24 million
The trends in openings and unemployment are not good. Yet, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cites a strong labor market.