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A fertility rebound could avert 30-70% of projected population losses by 2100. This might stabilizing societies at near-current sizes—but only if enacted now, before the cohort cliff (shrinking fertile women) deepens.
China's TFR remains a contentious topic, with official figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) hovering around or slightly above 1.0. Independent researchers like Yi Fuxian—a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison—argue that data has been historically inflated due to incentives during the one-child policy era (ocal officials overreporting births to meet quotas). Leaked internal estimates and alternative proxies (BCG vaccinations, marriage registrations) support Yi's view that actual births are 10-20% lower than reported, pushing TFR below 1.0 to 0.9 or 0.8.
It might be possible to increase fertility rate to replacement (2.1) in 10-15 years with 3-4% GDP investment.
The list of options below is likely not enough. Likely 10-25% of GDP would be needed to be invested with far larger financial incentives equal to the average per capita income in the country for the first 6-12 years. This is worthwhile because with half the population in 2070, the countries will be destined to have about half the GDP.
Years 1-3 [Quick Wins, +0.1-0.3 TFR] – Free IVF (invitro fertilization and egg freezing for all under-35s and even under-40s. This could add 10-15% births as seen in Israel. Include a $2K/month allowances.
Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW), reports the total number of live births in 2024 was 686,061 (TFR 1.15). This marked a record low, representing a 5.7% decline (or 41,227 fewer births) from 2023's 727,288. 2025 is on track for 665,000. Japan would need to get to 1.18 million or 1.2 million to get to TFR 2.1 population stabilization.
IVF and egg freezing are increasingly popular in Japan, fueled by subsidies (half of costs covered) and low fertility awareness. However, uptake lags behind Europe due to cultural stigma and work pressures. Overall, assisted reproductive tech (ART) usage climbed 3-5% YoY in 2025, per IMARC Group, but only ~10% of infertile couples access it due to costs/stigma. In 2023 in Japan, a record 85,048 babies were born via assisted reproductive technology (ART), including IVF, intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI), and frozen embryo transfers (FET). Doubling this level with free or payments beyond free would help.