A leaked Pentagon memo suggested that the US seek Spain's suspension from NATO for refusing to allow it access, basing, and overflight (ABO) rights during the Third Gulf War. Spanish Premier Pedro Sanchez dismissed it while a NATO official said that there's no provision for suspending members. NATO allies rallied around Spain as the BBC noted in their report, which also reminded everyone that Sanchez earlier criticized US-Israeli attacks on Iran and flat-out refused Trump's demand to spend 5% of GDP on defense.

From Trump's perspective, Spain was already a disloyal ally for being the only one that refused his spending demand, but refusing to allow the US ABO rights during the Third Gulf War crossed a red line. Nevertheless, as the abovementioned NATO official said, there's no provision for suspending members. Therefore, if Trump still decides to implement the memo's suggestion, he'll essentially be forcing the bloc to choose between the US and Spain: it can either give Spain the cold shoulder or lose US support.

From NATO's perspective, retaining unity is paramount in the face of what's (arguably wrongly) perceived as the so-called "Russian threat" (that even traditionally anti-Russian Estonia no longer believes is imminent), so any such move by Trump would throw it into a dilemma. Nevertheless, if pressed to choose, it's more important for them to remain on Trump's good side, without which they can't keep fueling the Ukrainian Conflict till 2029 in the hopes of a Democrat then returning to the White House.

Spain is thus expected to be thrown under the bus by NATO, but all that would mean in practice is that the US wouldn't provide any Article 5 support in the event that Morocco tries to forcefully wrest control over Spain's several North African holdings that Rabat considers to be occupied territory. Leading EU countries could still try to deter Morocco through hybrid economic-military means, however, and could intervene in Spain's support against it in the scenario of war over these lands too.

Interestingly, the US might back "Major Non-NATO Ally" Morocco in that event if its air and naval base from Spain are transferred there, which is possible in light of the new 10-year American-Moroccan defense roadmap. In that case, the US and the EU could find themselves on opposite sides of a future Spanish-Moroccan War despite both being NATO members, which could further worsen intra-bloc tensions to the point of an irreconcilable rift. The US might as well try to take Greenland if that happens.