This is part of a continuing pattern of deliberate deception by Trump, i.e., pretending there is great progress with talks with Iran, which in turn produces a boost in the US stock market and a decline in the futures price of oil. Here is the reality: There will be no negotiated end to the war with Iran in the next six months because the US narrative and the Iranian narrative cannot be reconciled.

Let's start with the US position or narrative… Iran is an irredeemable Islamic terrorist state that is teetering on the edge of collapse. Iran's political and military leaders are deeply divided. Iran's economy has no way to recover as long as the war goes on. Iran's military capabilities have been decimated. Iran must cease enriching uranium and must allow complete, unhindered inspections of its nuclear facilities. This is what the overwhelming majority of Trump advisors and US political pundits believe.

Iranian leaders are equally firm… Iran will only agree to a negotiated settlement to end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz if Israel agrees to a complete ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza. The Strait of Hormuz will remain under Iran's control and that they would never relinquish control of the SOH. On May 5, 2026, Iran launched a new body called the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), requiring all ships wishing to cross the Strait of Hormuz to register, fill out forms, and pay a toll before receiving a transit permit. Iran will never give up its supply of enriched uranium and, as a sovereign nation and signatory to the NPT, will exercise its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. Iran will continue to support the Palestinian people and their quest for freedom and self-rule and will continue to provide assistance to Hezbollah. Finally, Iran will not compromise on its right to build ballistic missiles.

This, boys and girls, is called an impasse. The US position rests on a number of false assumptions. First, Iran is not the leading sponsor of terrorism and has not been engaged in plots to destabilize it Gulf Arab neighbors. Second, there is no rift between the political leaders of Iran and the IRGC… the President, the Foreign Minister, the Head of the Iranian legislature and the Ayatollah all fought and served with the IRGC during the war with Iraq. Third, Iran's economy is beginning to revive thanks to support from Russia, China and Pakistan and from the high price of oil. Fourth, notwithstanding Trump's claims to the contrary, the Iranian navy, air force and ballistic missile, cruise missile and drones are intact and able to continue exchanging blows with the US and Israel.