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Rewiring
Interest Rates Are Going Higher
If a chart speaks a thousand words, this is it:
From its peak at about 15% in the early eighties, the trend for US bond yields was down for forty years. When the yield soared through 2.8% in April 2022 (yes, only 2.8%) alarm bells should have been ringing. When it turned down from 5% last October, investors heaved a sigh of relief and then expected interest rates and bond yields to decline: inflation was over.
However, between October and February the monthly inflation rate continually increased (it paused in March at the February rate). Importantly, last month Larry Summers headlined a join report between Harvard and the IMF which came out with a CPI recalculation to include financing costs, stating that in 2022 CPI inflation hit 18%. Those financing costs are still there, so the current official estimates of 3.4% understate it massively.