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Trade Crackdown: 14 Countries Receive Tariff Letters Including Japan, South Korea And Thailand
Summary:
US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose higher tariff rates of 25%-40% on key trading partners and signed an executive order holding off the new duties until Aug. 1.
Tariffs on Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan and Tunisia, would be 25%, South Africa and Bosnia 30%, Indonesia 32%, Bangladesh and Serbia 35%, Thailand and Cambodia 36%, while Laos and Myanmar would face a 40% levy.
Meanwhile, Trump suggested the possibility of additional trade negotiations and delays at the White House shortly after he sent out the tariff letters, as he said the notifications were "not 100% firm". He also said the US is close in making a deal with India.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said additional letters will arrive in the coming days.
Main takeaways:
the deadline was pushed towards August 1st vs. July 9th;
announced new tariff levels (effective on August 1st) for 14 countries
Trump said that the tariffs on each country would be separate from any "sectoral" tariffs that he imposes;
we should expect more deals/letters coming: Leavitt said Trump will send more letters
This is what the effective tariff rate looks like as of right now:
What is the worst scenario for Japan and SKorea if tariffs will sustain?
JPM strategist Rie Nishihara expects a reciprocal tariff of 24% will lead to 0.4%-0.9% drag in Japan GDP and 7% decline in TOPIX 2025 EPS. Note that these estimates are under the assumption that the additional tariffs will be applied to products other than those subject to product specific tariffs, which is different from the language used in Trump's latest letters (Trump said the tariffs on each country would be separate from any "sectoral" tariffs that he imposes). The downside scenario estimated by Rie for NKY is 34,000.
On South Korea, its Tech and Discretionary sectors have 40% and 33% revenue exposure to the US, respectively. JPM Strategist Rajiv Batra sees 7% and 12% decline in EPS for its Tech and Discretionary sectors.