Will Trump's trade moves prove brilliant or blow up in America's face? ZH readers likely know where die-hard Austrian Peter Schiff stands: as the world's largest importer, the U.S. has no cards to play. But as Brent "Dollar Milkshake" Johnson has long argued, "the world isn't Austrian", the dollar's network effect will not easily be broken, and sometimes American belligerence works… whether we like it or not.

Tonight at 7pm on the ZH home and X account, the two will duke it out while the great Dave Collum moderates.

Ahead of the debate, here's where Trump's tariff (and threat of tariffs) stand with some of the largest U.S. trading partners:

Canada & Mexico

• Broad-based 25% tariffs were imposed starting March 4, 2025—but thanks to USMCA exemptions, over 85% of cross-border trade remains unaffected.

• Canada suspended most retaliatory tariffs after receiving exemptions, though around 70% of its own tariffs on U.S. goods remain active per Canadian officials.

• U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs were doubled to 50% by June; Canada countered with plans for additional retaliatory measures if talks falter.

• Courts are challenging the administration's emergency-authority-based tariffs.

China

• Trump raised tariffs incrementally—from 10% in February/March to a sweeping 34% "reciprocal tariff" in April.

• China responded with equal tariffs (34%) on U.S. imports plus bans and export restrictions on rare-earth elements.

• Earlier this week the US announced it will require TSMC to get special permits for the import of its products manufactured on the Chinese mainland.

India

• Trump has slapped a proposed 50% tariff on Indian imports, partly due to India's continued Russian oil purchases.

• Analysts (e.g., ICRIER) warn that 70–87% of Indian exports to the U.S. could be severely affected.

• India–Russia relations are strengthening in contrast, with Russia offering support amid U.S. pressure.

Japan & South Korea

• Tariff relief promised in exchange for investment and purchases (e.g., reducing auto tariffs from 25% to 15%) has not been formally enactedl.

EU & UK

• While some "partial exemptions" or reductions were negotiated with the EU and UK, these remain inconsistently documented.

• For the UK, there's a looming threat of semiconductor tariffs up to 200–300%, though no enforcement has occurred yet.

Brazil

• As of August 1, a 50% tariff on Brazilian products is in force. Brazil has filed a complaint with the WTO and imposed retaliatory duties under its Trade Reciprocity Law.

• Trump framed it as retaliation against Brazil's judicial actions against Bolsonaro—but the U.S. actually ran a substantial trade surplus with Brazil in 2024.

We'll see you tonight at 7pm ET, right here on the ZH homepage and X account. It will also stream via our YouTube.