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Trump's Peace Deal: An Analysis
In some respects Trump's proposal gives Putin more of what Putin wants than does the Russian proposal. Trump makes Putin pay for this by requiring the use of Russian frozen assets to rebuild Ukraine and by denying recognition to the area already incorporated into Russia, but still uncleared of Ukrainian forces.
Trump's proposal, characteristically, also introduces the US into the agreement in a profit-making manner. Frozen Russian assets will be used for payment of US companies tasked with rebuilding Ukraine:
"A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to:
1. The creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centres, and artificial intelligence.
b. The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernise, and operate Ukraine's gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.
c. Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernisation of cities and residential areas.
d. Infrastructure development.
e. Extraction of minerals and natural resources.
f. The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts."
From the beginning of the military conflict I have said that what Putin wants from the conflict is a mutual security agreement with the West that brings the hostilities, not merely the conflict in Ukraine, to an end. This is what Trump offers:
2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years wil be considered settled.
4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.
7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.