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Is America Ready For War? | Palmer Luckey From #464 | The Way I Heard It
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Moderated by Cornell professor Dave Collum, Schiff - based in Austrian economics - argued that the war will do nothing but harm the American economy via higher prices and interest rates, while the dollar weakens.
Every believes Trump can pull a rabbit out of a hat and come out of this with the U.S. and the dollar in a stronger position. Though, he notes that some measure of economic pain is likely a necessity of war.
Below were the highlights for those short on time but we recommend listening to the full debate, linked at the bottom.
War: An Economic Nightmare
Schiff: "The war itself is inherently going to end up being inflationary… it's going to cost a lot of money that we don't have."
With no plan to raise taxes, the path is clear. "We're just going to run bigger budget deficits," Schiff said. This will weaken the dollar while raising interest rates, an ugly combo.
"We're going to have to borrow more money to fund the war… the Fed is going to monetize that debt because the markets can't absorb it," he said. "Interest on the debt is already the number two line item… and pretty soon it's going to pass Social Security." Already the Treasury is moving to suppress rising interest rates with the largest buybacks in history.
Schiff is predicting a return of stagflation or as he's called it, an "inflationary depression."
"We're going to have more inflation to pay for this war… a weaker economy, upward pressure on interest rates." Higher energy, food, and input costs feed into that dynamic. Housing sits at the center of the fallout. "We could have a 30% decline nationwide in home prices very easily," raising the risk of defaults, foreclosures, and stress across the banking system.
"Q4 GDP growth was 0.7… 2025 was 2.5%." As growth slows, deficits widen on their own. Add war spending, and the trajectory steepens. "As the economy weakens, the government collects less taxes… you get bigger deficits anyway, and the war is just going to exacerbate that."