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Odds of Fed Rate Hikes Now Exceed Cuts Through October
October 28 Meeting Synopsis
90.7 percent chance of Fed standing pat
8.1 percent chance of a quarter-point hike
0.1 percent chance of a two quarter-point hikes
1.1 percent chance of a quarter-point cut
Rate Hike vs Cut Likelihood
The probability of any hike (quarter-point or two quarter-point) is 8.1% + 0.1% = 8.2%.
The probability of a cut (quarter-point) is 1.1%.
A hike is therefore 8.2 / 1.1 ≈ 7.45 times as likely as a cut.
That's one way of slanting the observation given the odds of the Fed doing nothing is 90.7 percent.
I captured CME Fedwatch weighted target probability 5 minutes before the meeting and again today.
Weighted Average CME Fed Target Rate Probabilities
Changing December 2026 Target Rate Odds
February 24: 3.07 percent
March 3: 3.15 percent
March 12: 3.45 percent
March 18: 3.42 percent
March 19: 3.64 percent
The March 18 numbers are about 5 minutes before the March FOMC meeting.
The March 19 numbers are 11:30 AM Mountain Time.
The Fed meeting and the press conference effectively put the expectation of a change by the Fed on hold for the entire rest of the year.