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As anyone who's consumed any news about this war knows well by now, the Strait of Hormuz is a major energy chokepoint, the Iranian government did exactly what they said they were going to do if Trump and Netanyahu ordered this attack and started blocking ships tied in any way to the government's attacking them from passing through the Strait, and the US, Israeli, or really any other government have not been able to do anything about it.
However, throughout all of this, most of the discourse about the economic impacts of the war has focused on the rising prices drivers are facing at the gas pump. That isn't surprising, as gas prices are an early cost that impact consumers directly.
But the emphasis on pain at the pump threatens to badly understate the economic damage of this war. And it helps feed the false impression that, if this new attempt at a ceasefire holds and the war ends somewhat quickly, gas prices will fall back down as fast as they rose, and then all the global economic turmoil the world's been worrying about will be avoided.
It won't. A lot of economic pain has already been locked in by this war. But to really understand it, it's necessary to keep a few important economic truths at the front of our minds.
First is the fact that the entire purpose of the economy is to produce goods and services that consumers value enough to pay for. All of the production happening anywhere in the economy is geared towards that end.
That's relatively straightforward with the production of consumer goods. A commercial brewer, for example, chooses to produce specific beers because they think consumers will value those beers enough to pay more money than the brewer spent producing them, making it a profitable production.
But it's also true for all the production that is not directly tied to a finished consumer good—which is, in fact, most of the production happening in the economy. Businesses produce capital goods like industrial stainless-steel mixing tanks, rubber tractor tires, plastic packaging, or the ingredients of fertilizer because there's demand for those goods from other businesses that produce later-stage goods and, ultimately, consumer goods.
So, returning to the brewing example, all the production that results in that finished bottle of beer doesn't begin with the brewer. It requires grain that is planted, grown, harvested, and transported to the brewery. It also requires fermenters, Brite tanks, mash tuns, and canning or bottling systems—all of which need to be produced with other capital goods like stainless steel, which itself requires other capital goods like iron ore.