IBM's surprise second-quarter warning blindsided traders Tuesday morning, raising new concerns that enterprise technology budgets are being redirected toward AI infrastructure at the expense of traditional software and IT services.

Shares plunged 24% in the first 20 minutes of New York trading. Should those losses hold through the close, IBM would suffer its largest one-day crash on record, based on Bloomberg trading data going back to 1968.

Here's what Wall Street's top desks are saying in first takes:

UBS analyst Robert Ruple:

The big news this morning was a surprising negative preannouncement by IBM, down 22%, with Q2 sales of $17.2 bn versus $17.8 bn expected and EPS of $2.93 versus $3.02. Citing unanticipated capex reprioritization impacting client buying patterns with numerous large deals failing to close on time, cybersecurity distractions and some supply chain-related impact where they saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure (thanks to AI boom) ahead of expected price increases. This redirection of budgets towards AI has been a topic that Karl Keirstead/team have been articulating as potential risk for some time (particularly for incumbent SaaS suppliers and IT Services companies), which sounds like a harbinger of commentary that could be further accentuated by other software, IT services and hardware-related companies as Q2 reporting season progresses that is sure to weigh on sentiment incrementally.

David Vogt provides his initial thoughts on the IBM miss and these results suggest that enterprise IT spending pressures are hitting sooner than investors anticipated, leading to a revenue shortfall and non-GAAP EPS guidance of $2.93, below both expectations and consensus. The primary driver was weakness in IBM's zSeries mainframe cycle, which hurt its high-margin Transaction Processing (TP) business. While Red Hat delivered solid 11% constant-currency growth and recently acquired assets such as HashiCorp and Confluent performed well, these positives were overshadowed by a sharp decline in TP revenue, which appears to have fallen in the mid-teens year over year and represents nearly 30% of IBM's Software segment. As a result, investors are likely to reassess IBM's long-term software growth outlook, particularly for 2027 and beyond, as rising infrastructure costs and tightening IT budgets weigh on demand. These results reinforce concerns that stronger growth areas like Red Hat may not be sufficient to offset prolonged weakness in TP business, increasing pressure on IBM to pursue larger acquisitions or other growth initiatives to sustain its software growth trajectory remaining at neutral.