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Hello MAGA, Let's Discuss Trump Costing Republicans Six Senate Seats
Kalshi T Minus 5 and Counting
Alaska: 76% D
Iowa: 54% R
Maine: 72% D
North Carolina: 93% D
Ohio: 60% D
Texas: 59% D
That's a loss of five Senate Seats.
Nate Silver
Alaska: 51.3% D – Essentially a tossup
Iowa: 59.4% D
Maine: 74.0% D
North Carolina: 92.5% D
Ohio: 74.4% D
Texas: 70.2% D
That's a loss of five Senate Seats with Alaska a tossup
Polymarket
Alaska: 79% D
Iowa: 52% R
Maine: 74.0% D
North Carolina: 95% D
Ohio: 63% D
Texas: 62% D
I think the betting markets have this correct and Silver is off.
But if the betting markets are wrong on Alaska and Silver is wrong on Iowa, that still a Democrat pickup of four.
If Silver is wrong on Alaska (tossup) but correct on Iowa, that's the +6 clean sweep scenario.