The MBA estimates that $875 billion of commercial and multifamily mortgages mature in 2026, and many of these loans must be refinanced at much higher rates than when they were made.

I have calculated the total CRE exposure (CRE nonfarm-nonresidential and multifamily mortgages, CRE construction loans, CRE loans not secured by real estate, and unused CRE commitments) as a percentage of total equity as a broad measure of bank exposure to commercial real estate. A variation of this ratio is used by banking regulators to assess CRE exposures; any ratio over 300% is viewed as excessive exposure to CRE. 
Data are as of March 31, 2026 (Q1).

Below is a list of the total CRE exposure of the 50 banks with more than $10B in assets where their exposure exceeds 300% of total equity capital (50 out of 154 large banks, 4,336 banks of any size). Two have exposures greater than 500% of equity, and 14 have exposures greater than 400%. In Q4, the comparable numbers were 52, five and 17.

Most prominent (by size) are #7 Flagstar Bank, #22 Valley National Bank, #29 Columbia Bank (formerly Umpqua Bank), #30 Zions Bancorporation, #43 SouthState Bank, #44 East West Bank, and #48 Old National Bank, each of which has more than $50B in total assets.

Some of the drop in the large-bank list comes from mergers rather than lower exposures. Synovus (369% in Q4) merged into Pinnacle Bank on Jan. 2, and Comerica (302% in Q4) merged into Fifth Third in early February. EagleBank (520% in Q4) fell off the list because its assets slipped below $10B; its exposure is still 473%. FirstBank of Colorado (392% in Q4) dropped to 158% after PNC acquired it in January, because purchase accounting pushed down to the bank more than doubled its equity.