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"XBE" writes ….
Hello Mish
You are 100% correct about the impact of robots in aircraft manufacturing and elsewhere.
I spent 37 years at Boeing as a design engineer (1967-2004). I have a MSME (master of science in mechanical engineering). This is what I know.
The new 777X composite wing plant in Everett shocked the IAM (machinists union) as to how few new jobs were needed.
The same happened at the new Propulsion assembly plant in Charleston. On opening day, IAM was greeted by a huge, giant robot welcoming them.
In 2015, 79300 Boeing employees delivering 700 airplanes. That's 113 employees per airplane.
When I joined Boeing in 1967, Puget Sound had 120,000 employees and Boeing delivered about 300 airplanes (from memory). That's 400 employees/airplane.
Since 1967 there has been a 72% reduction in the number of people it takes to build an airplane!
People I know in the robotic business tell me 60% of today's jobs will be gone in 20 years. You have covered them: trucking, strawberry/cabbage picking, etc.
Ex-Boeing Employee