Amid a flurry of executive orders, trade war bluster and imperialist ambitions, US President Donald Trump has been notably restrained in his statements on top rival China.

Posturing as a "peacemaker,", Trump has said war avoidance and ending existing conflicts are central to his foreign policy agenda. "President Xi and I will do everything possible to make the World more peaceful and safe," Trump wrote in a social media post hours before his formal inauguration. "It is my expectation that we will solve many problems together." 

That and other conciliatory gestures, including an executive order to stall TikTok's ban and a delay in imposing threatened 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods, are sparking speculation that Trump envisions a new "Monroe Doctrine" order where the US has influence over the Americas while allowing China to consolidate its power unchallenged over East Asia.    

That, in turn, is raising concerns of possible abandonment among America's frontline allies in the Pacific, not least in the Philippines, which has played a crucial role in the outgoing Biden administration's extended deterrence policy vis-a-vis China. That included allowing the US Pentagon access to key Philippine military bases near Taiwan and positioning the potent Typhon missile system to point at China from Philippine soil.

"We don't really know what Trump will do…The US has been an isolationist country twice in history [before World War II]… and they can end up isolationist again, and that is the fear here, [that Trump] will agree with China to divide the world," former Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, who played a central role in Manila's historic 2016 arbitration victory at The Hague on its claims versus China in the South China Sea, said in a recent press conference.

"What if tomorrow Trump says we can't blame China for invading [the] Spratlys [in the South China Sea]. We have to strengthen our defensive capabilities, we have to modernize the Armed Forces of the Philippines. At the end of the day, we can only rely on ourselves…", the influential magistrate at the UTAK Forum in Manila this week.

Carpio is not alone. Other influential Philippine political figures such as former Senator Antonio Trillanes, who cultivated strong personal ties with newly appointed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio during the turbulent Rodrigo Duterte era, have also expressed his concerns.