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Without tariffs," the President said on his affordability tour in Georgia, "everybody would be bankrupt, the whole country would be bankrupt." In court, the Trump administration has made similar sweeping claims, arguing that revoking certain tariff authorities would have "catastrophic consequences" and "lead to financial ruin."
The Supreme Court has now struck down the administration's "reciprocal tariffs" imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This is a major victory for American consumers and businesses who suffered from higher taxes and higher prices that the tariffs imposed.
And contrary to the President's claims, tariffs were never going to prevent national bankruptcy. America's debt crisis does not arise from a revenue problem. The federal government has an unsustainable spending problem.
The Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) latest Budget and Economic Outlook shows debt held by the public exceeding 100 percent of GDP this year and rising past its World War II record by 2030. Ten years from now, debt reaches roughly 120 percent of GDP and continues climbing to 175 percent by 2056 — and that is under optimistic projections that assume no economic, financial, or public health crises over that time frame.
Revenues are not the problem. Even after extending and adding to the Trump tax cuts, federal receipts are projected to remain near or above their historical average as a share of the economy, growing from $5.2 trillion (17.2 percent of GDP) to $8.3 trillion (17.8 percent of GDP) over the decade.
The problem is that federal spending exceeds revenues by a lot and is growing much faster than revenues. Spending is projected to grow from $7 trillion (23.1 percent of GDP) to $11.4 trillion (24.4 percent of GDP).?
The widening annual deficit (the gap between annual spending and revenue) is overwhelmingly driven by the growth in Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and rising interest costs. By 2036, interest costs, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are projected to consume 100 percent of federal revenues.
Read that again.
Under current law, within a decade,?every dollar?collected in revenue will be absorbed by health care programs, Social Security, and interest spending to service the ballooning federal debt, leaving nothing for national defense or any other core function of government.
Against that backdrop, the claim that revoking tariff authority would produce "financial ruin" or "bankrupt" the country does not withstand scrutiny.