This analysis attempts to look at different metrics to understand the current momentum in the gold and silver markets. It is meant as an analysis on potential price direction in the very short-term (a few weeks to 1-2 months).

In Q1, the analysis highlighted the break of support in gold and silver of $5000 and $80 as a short-term bearish indicator with more downside risk ahead. That turned out to be another accurate call.

In Q2, the analysis conducted around $4150 mentioned we were nearing the bottom but still had room to move lower. While the full bearish case was not hit, gold did continue lower before a sharp turnaround in August.

After rebounding strongly off $4000 gold met resistance around $4600 and has since pulled back to consolidate further in the $4200- $4400 range. With the Fed turning more hawkish lately, precious metals lost some shine. So where is the data pointing next? Let's dive in…

Price Action

Gold and silver are still digesting the massive move seen in 2025 and January of 2026. While the pullback has been steep, it is not uncharacteristic given the massive move and the froth seen in the market. Both metals are consolidating comfortably above support around $4000 in gold and $55 in silver. However, both metals are also far from resistance which stand around $4650-$4800 and $72-$78.

This leaves the price action in a very neutral stance as both metals have plenty of room between both sides of key levels. A decisive break of either level on the upside or downside will trigger strong follow through. Until those key levels are hit, the price action is in a holding pattern.

The log chart is now looking like a mirror image of both 2008 and 2011. Based on the length of this bull market and the explosive moves over previous resistance, 2008 still seems like the more probable path (a sooner rally to new highs vs a multi-year downturn). However, a catalyst is needed soon to get moving higher or else metals could drift lower and potentially enter the 2011 type scenario. The metals need to challenge new highs again soon or $4000 and $55 come back into play as the key levels that will get broken.

Daily Moving Averages (DMA)

Gold

The bad news is that the 50 DMA and the current price sit below the 200 DMA of $4557. The good news is that both moving averages are sloping upwards. This is usually a bullish signal. Similar to the analysis on the log chart above, the price needs to start moving up soon or both curves will start sloping down. That becomes bearish. Time is working against the metals if they stay in this holding pattern too long. But until the lines slope down, the outlook tilts bullish.