In my view, one metric will tell us who won the Iran war:

Who controls the Strait of Hormuz when the fighting ends?

Hormuz represents the most important energy chokepoint on the planet.

Iran sits along its northern shore and has spent decades preparing missiles, drones, naval forces, and other weapons to control the traffic through it.

If Iran emerges from this war with the ability to decide who passes through Hormuz, under what conditions, and at what cost, the implications will extend far beyond the Persian Gulf.

It would mean the US—the country that has policed the world's oceans and guaranteed the flow of global commerce since WW2—could no longer guarantee passage through the world's most important energy corridor.

That would strike at the credibility of American power.