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Ron Baron does not expect to sell my personal Tesla or SpaceX shares in my lifetime. 65% of his personal wealth is tied to Musk's ventures (40% in Tesla, 25% in SpaceX, and the rest in related funds like xAI).
Baron highlighted Baron Capital's has made over $12 billion from investing in Musk's ecosystem since 2014. $8 billion from Tesla from a $400 million investment in 2014–2016. $4 billion from SpaceX from 2017 and $400 million from other Musk ventures.
Tesla's Manufacturing Innovations
Tesla is building machines that build machines. Tesla car production cycle time improved from 60 seconds to 35 seconds per car in Shanghai. They are targeting 5-10s per car with Cybercab.
Path to efficiency. Tesla will densify factories like computer chips. They get more equipment and production in higher volumetric efficiency (go in 3d in the facstory). This will enable shorter part travel).Think of factories as circuits—shrink distances. Tesla will boost clock speed.
Legacy firms prioritize 5-10% gains and are risk averse. Tesla embraces physics-based analysis and big risks
Tesla collapsed Dojo and AI5 chip programs into one. AI5 chip is low-power and has 2-3x Nvidia inference/watt efficiency with 10% cost. This is essential for FSD/Optimus. Elon personally redesigned for success.
There is an AI chip Scaling challenge. TSMC/Samsung great but too slow. They have 5-year fab timelines. Tesla may build own fabs for massive chip needs.
Full Self-Driving (FSD) and AI Advancements
Exponential leaps. Over 10B miles driven will show 4x safer than human drivers.
AI mimics human driving (end-to-end learning) instead of rule-coding every scenario.
HW4 capable of 2-3x human safety with unsupervised. HW5/AI5 targets 10x safer.