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September Jobs Up 119,000 Unemployment Rises to 4.4 Percent
Please consider the severely delayed September Jobs Report originally scheduled for October 3.
Initial Thoughts
All year, I kept asking "Does anyone believe these reports?"
In July the BLS said oops. Employment in May and June was a combined 258,000 lower than previously reported (now revised lower again).
In August, the BLS said oops again. The BLS reported negative job growth for June.
The revision hit parade continues in September. July was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, and the change for August was revised down by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000.
There is no reason to believe this report either. But let's discuss it anyway.
2025 Synopsis
Since January 2025, Employment (Household Survey) is -250,000.
Since January 2025, Nonfarm Payrolls (Establishment Survey) is +573,000.
Since January 2025, Fulltime Employment (Household Survey) is -743,000
Monthly Job Report Details
Nonfarm Payroll: +119,000 to 159,626,000 – Establishment Survey
Civilian Non-institutional Population: +225,000 to 274,226,000
Civilian Labor Force: 470,000 to 171,248,000 – Household Survey
Participation Rate: +0.1 to 62.4% – Household Survey
Employment:+251,000 to 163,645,000 – Household Survey
Unemployment: +219,000 to 7,603,000 – Household Survey
Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.1 to 4.4% – Household Survey
Not in Labor Force: -245,000 to 102,978,000 – Household Survey
U-6 unemployment: +0.1 to 8.0% – Household Survey