#1: Trump will Lose His Supreme Court Battle on Reciprocal Tariffs

Expect a 6-3 margin against Trump, possibly 7-2. I rate this a 75 percent chance.

Then If he loses, then there is about a 60 percent chance of at least some of the money will have to be refunded.

Trump will moan the SC is killing the best economy in history. He will also say that the ruling will have no impact at all. This is illogical of course, but seriously, expect both statements.

Trump will pursue other avenues of doing the same things with mixed success (using the word success in terms of what Trump wants, not what's good for the country).

#2: Trump will Lose His Supreme Court Battle on Birthright Citizenship

Expect a 7-2 vote against Trump. 9-0 would not be a surprise.

I rate this a 90 percent chance.

#3: Trump will lose his Supreme Court battle over the right to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook.

Expect a 6-3 vote against Trump. I rate this a 80 percent chance.

#4: AI will have minimal impact in 2026

There will be some job losses. And some speculation fails. But don't any extreme job losses or huge numbers of AI-related bankruptcies. Extreme events are unlikely.

I rate this an 75 percent chance.

#5: Tariffs Will Bite

Businesses that can will pass along more costs. In contrast to AI, we will see job losses mount.

Small business bankruptcies soar.

Trump will blame Biden, the Fed, and the Supreme Court for everything bad that happens.

I rate this an 80 percent chance.

#6: Republicans Lose the House

Voters do not believe we have best economy in history. And they will take it out on Republicans in the midterm elections.

It will be a low turnout affair as non-MAGA republicans show no enthusiasm to vote.

I rate this an 75 percent chance.