Oh, you're a hard one

But I know you got your reasons

These things that are pleasin' you

Can hurt you somehow

– The Eagles

The ghost of Winston Churchill is watching President Trump exhaust all of America's possibilities. And it appears getting around to doing the right thing will have to be entrusted to the next administration – if we make it that far.

After kidnapping Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, President Trump is now bent on outdoing himself by committing the US to "running Venezuela"; threatening Denmark, Cuba, Nicaragua, Mexico, Canada, Colombia and Iran; increasing the Pentagon budget by 50%, to $1.5 trillion; and seizing Russian tankers.

Justifications for these actions are, in no particular order: narco-terrorism, illegal immigration, the malign presence of China/Russia/Iran, oil, rare earths, arctic security, the "Donroe Doctrine" and "Murca, f**k yeah!"

Pointing out the wobbly merits and confused means to achieve these ends is a fool's errand. They are not meant to withstand close scrutiny. We will pull on a few loose threads for demonstration purposes but it is pointless to go through the entire litany as farces will be generated faster than they can be debunked.

The world can safely assume that President Trump is blundering and figure out why later. We are confident in this assessment as Trump's only real motivation is the "Murca, f**k yeah!" musings of a dementia-addled narcissism. Talking heads with sudden expertise in arctic missile trajectories and oil and gas economics are trying to clothe a naked emperor. Nobody is playing 4-D chess. All of this will end in tears as it has in Vietnam, Somalia, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan and the Red Sea.    

In recent days, flying under the headlines, China announced an export restriction protocol on dual-use (commercial and military) products for Japan, including rare earths. This is surely in retaliation for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent statement that a PLA move on Taiwan constitutes an existential threat and justifies a Japanese military response.

While verbally stating that only military uses will be affected, initial reports suggest that rare-earths exports to Japan have been broadly restricted. This is an old Sun Tzu play, "When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard." The lifting of export restrictions will involve Japanese concessions on its military posture towards Taiwan.