The Conference Board notes US Consumer Confidence Fell Sharply in January

Confidence collapsed to lowest point since 2014, surpassing pandemic depths

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 9.7 points in January to 84.5 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 94.2 in December. A 5.1-point upward revision to December's reading of the Index resulted in a slight increase last month, reversing the initially reported decline. However, January's preliminary results showed confidence resumed declining after a one-month uptick.

The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—dropped by 9.9 points to 113.7 in January. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 9.5 points to 65.1, well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. The cutoff for preliminary results was January 16, 2026.

Consumer Confidence Present Situation and Expectations

"Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened," said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. "All five components of the Index deteriorated, driving the overall Index to its lowest level since May 2014 (82.2)—surpassing its COVID-19 pandemic depths."

The Present Situation Index fell, as net views on current business conditions dwindled to just barely positive, at +0.1%. Perceptions of employment conditions also edged lower, with the labor market differential—the share of consumers saying jobs are "plentiful" minus the share saying jobs are "hard to get"—continuing to flag. All three Expectations Index components also weakened in January. Expectations for business and labor market conditions six months from now fell further into negative territory. The outlook for household incomes became less positive.