Of the roughly $1.03 trillion outstanding in this maturity bucket, the Federal Reserve holds around $540 billion.

Why?

Much of it is the legacy of QE after 2008 and especially COVID, when the Fed bought trillions of dollars of long-duration Treasuries. Those bonds have now rolled down the curve.

And the bigger picture is striking:

???? The Fed still owns roughly $1.6 trillion of Treasuries with 10+ years to maturity.

That means a massive amount of duration remains outside private investors' hands.

But as the Fed's portfolio gradually shrinks, someone else must absorb that supply.

And unlike the Fed, private investors care about price.

So the key question isn't just how much debt Washington will issue.

It's who will buy it — and at what yield?