One electrical-equipment producer said pricing volatility and delivery delays are "arguably worse than the pandemic era," with both moving relentlessly higher. A primary-metals manufacturer was even more blunt: "It makes me yearn for the coronavirus pandemic chaos, which was more manageable than whatever this is that we are in." This is what lies beneath the government's sanitized inflation statistics: factories are expanding, but the cost and difficulty of obtaining the materials needed to produce anything have become worse than during the supply-chain nightmare of COVID.

The headline Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index surged to 55.6% in July from 53.3% in June, far above the consensus estimate of 54%. Any reading above 50% signals manufacturing expansion, and the July figure was the strongest since May 2022. Manufacturing has now expanded for seven consecutive months following ten months of contraction, while the ISM says the July result is consistent with annualized real GDP growth of approximately 2.8%.

New orders increased for the seventh consecutive month, rising to 56.7% from 56%. Production exploded to 58.5% from 52.2%, reaching its highest level since November 2021. Backlogged orders increased to 55% from 50.5%, while employment finally moved into expansion territory at 52.8%, up from 49.7%. That was the first manufacturing-employment expansion in 33 months.

Fifteen manufacturing industries reported growth, led by computer and electronic products, machinery, petroleum and coal products, and other sectors tied to AI infrastructure, defense, transportation, and capital investment. Customers' inventories remain too low, new orders are rising, and factories are rebuilding backlogs. There is genuine demand here, particularly from the construction of data centers, the AI spending boom, defense production, and the reshoring of certain supply chains.

However, the same expansion is colliding with a supply system that is already strained. Supplier deliveries deteriorated again, with that index rising to 58.9% from 57.4%. In the ISM survey, a number above 50% means deliveries are slowing, and the present delays are not merely the healthy result of stronger orders. Manufacturers cited shortages, transportation disruption, extended lead times, metals chaos, computer-chip demand, energy costs, tariffs, and geopolitical uncertainty throughout the Middle East.

The Prices Index remained at a punishing 71.1%. That was down from 73% in June and below the 84.6% recorded in April, but a reading above 70% still means broad and aggressive price increases. Celebrating a decline from an extreme level is like celebrating because the house is now burning through only one floor instead of two. The rate of deterioration may have moderated, but input prices are still rising throughout the manufacturing chain.

The Federal Reserve has now been placed in the impossible position that government repeatedly creates for central banks. Manufacturing is growing at its fastest pace in more than four years, production is surging, orders are expanding, factory employment has finally turned positive, and price pressures remain severe. This is not the environment that justifies cutting interest rates merely because Wall Street and Washington demand cheaper money.