By all conventional measures, America is losing the war with Iran. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has survived the U.S.-Israeli regime change effort, and it seems as though the hardline factions in Iran have been empowered. They also maintain their stockpiles of drones and missiles, while the U.S. is running dangerously low on crucial munitions.

Perhaps the most tangible sign of strategic defeat for the U.S. comes in the form of destroyed bases. Throughout the conflict, Iran has dealt severe blows to U.S. bases across the region, resulting in 18 troops having been killed and over 600 sustaining injuries.

A predictable outcome

Iran's ability to touch American bases across the Middle East was not surprising to many of those advocating against this war. In fact, it was one of the foremost reasons to show restraint. In August 2025, Dr. Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, warned that in the case of a renewed conflict, Iran would likely act with much less restraint than they did during the 12-day War.

"It's not going to be like last time," Dr. Parsi explained, "the Iranians may this time around strike at U.S. bases in a manner that they didn't last time. Last time, as one Pentagon official said, it was a polite response because it was all about ending the war. This time around, it's likely going to be much worse."

Dr. Parsi also expressed concern about American defensive systems, saying "we know now that the Iranians have missile capabilities that can penetrate all layers of Israeli and American air defense systems and can lead to a large number of American deaths. So we will once again have Americans coming home from the Middle East in coffins."

Tragically, these predictions have proven entirely correct.

From the early days of this war, the damage became apparent. The New York Times reported in late March that many American bases in the region had been rendered "all but uninhabitable." The Iranians attacks have been effective at knocking out key defensive and communications infrastructure as well. All of this information has been intentionally underdiscussed by the Trump administration, in the hopes that Americans will buy their narrative that an easy U.S. victory has occurred.

Despite their decision to not inform the public of this troubling data, the risks are very real for troops still positioned in the region. Since the collapse of the Memorandum of Understanding, four U.S. soldiers have been killed, and roughly 100 have been injured by Iranian attacks.

Many of America's bases in the Middle East simply weren't prepared to face Iranian retaliation at the scale we've witnessed. During the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the fighting occurred predominantly within the borders of the respective countries, so many U.S. military facilities weren't designed to withstand extensive enemy fire.

Iran, however, is a much different story.

As Dr. Parsi warned in August, Iran possesses both the willingness and the capability to inflict severe harm on U.S. military infrastructure across the region. They have used their arsenal of short and mid-range ballistic missiles to deal major blows to bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq since the beginning of July, after the MoU fell apart.