When Anthropic confidentially submitted its draft S-1 to the SEC back in June, it was clear there were many shocking numbers in the IPO prospectus which the company did not want made public amid speculation of massive ongoing losses, but few were prepared for what was leaked today to Reuters. 

According to a copy of the IPO prospectus leaked by Reuters, Anthropic is making a massive bet that AI will transform the global economy more profoundly than industrialization, electricity and ?the internet. But, as Reuters correctly puts it, "the cost to get there will be staggering" - the company reported a net loss of $42 billion in 2025. And while revenue grew 12-fold in 2025 to nearly $4.6 billion, the company lost more than $8 billion on an operating basis, with compute spend soaring to $7.33 billion, accounting for 58% of its $12.65 billion in total operating expenses. 

In other words, Anthropic lost almost $2 for every dollar it made in sales, and that trend is accelerating. 

It gets worse: not only is the company's revenue fleeting, it is controlled by just two customers on the margin. Anthropic said nearly a quarter of its revenue came from just two customers last year, and as part of its risk factors, warned that many of its largest clients were not locked into long-term contracts and could cut or stop spending.

But what is most concerning is the confirmation of what we said back in July: it was back then we laid out the reason behind the forceful push by the frontier models to commence regulatory capture against open-weight models, which we framed as follows: 

The problem with the $2 trillion in circular AI financing is that it is all contingent on the frontiers (Anthropic/ OpenAI) being money good on their $1.5+TN in unfunded commitments. Which they won't be if Chinese open LLMs grab market share. Hence the push against Chinese LLMs.

We doubled down on the massive amount of "unfunded spending commitments" by the big two frontier models, Anthropic and OpenAI, one month later when in response to the FT catching up to our previous reporting, we said that "Again: that $3 trillion in "unfunded spending commitments" (thank you AI SPVs) will never get funded when token prices for closed models collapse to open levels"

In other words, $1.5 trillion each, and about a third of that through 2030, or $500 billion in spending commitments. 

Well, as Reuters reports, Anthropic's massive unfunded spending obligations (for a detailed analysis of why this matters a lot, read "The Off-Balance Sheet Time Bomb Inside AI Hits $3.1 Trillion: Up $1.3TN In Three Months") are precisely what we said they are to wit: Anthropic "plans to spend $518 billion on cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations in coming year, according to the prospectus."

The problem: Anthropic already has massive amounts in (mostly) off-balance sheet debt, having stacked over $71 billion through special purpose vehicles to finance Google TPU chips. It also has a $15 billion credit facility and likely has many more unreported, off-balance sheet funding scheme that we are not aware of.