For a while, commercial real estate was supposedly going to bring down the banking system. Then the regional bank failures came and went, the Federal Reserve helped stabilize the financial system, and the market collectively decided that the problem had been contained.

But just because something has disappeared from the headlines doesn't mean it has disappeared from the balance sheet. In fact, I would argue that we're approaching precisely the point in the credit cycle when some of the more serious problems should start revealing themselves.

Credit conditions are tightening, borrowing costs remain elevated, and we're beginning to see signs of strain in private credit. It would be remarkable if commercial real estate, which spent the better part of the last decade gorging itself on cheap financing, somehow emerged from this environment completely unscathed.

And now we have some new numbers that suggest the problem is very much alive.

According to a recent report from CRE Daily, citing research from commercial real estate analytics firm Trepp, an alarming percentage of office properties approaching refinancing simply don't generate enough cash flow to support replacement financing under today's conditions.

Trepp examined 309 commercial mortgage-backed securities office loans totaling $18.2 billion, all scheduled to mature by September 2027, less than a year from now.