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FULL REPLAY: President Trump Delivers an Address to the Nation - 12/17/25
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The global economy, led by China, is headed for a major decline and no amount of positive thinking will change this fact. Plenty of investors have come to this conclusion but constant intervention has been reversing the impact of investor sell decisions for a year.
Artificial intelligence represents the last-ditch effort to reverse this slow, inexorable decline but it was rushed into existence without a true need, apart from saving the world. Instead of saving the global economy, it's going to make the decline much worse than necessary as the capital invested will be written down, in many cases to zero value. The financial model that undergirds AI makes no sense whatsoever.
AI will have good company. Green energy and climate change will also play a part. Western Europe, China, Canada, and parts of the US will be hit hard by past investments into supposedly clean energy. These investments are locked into energy cost structures for the foreseeable future, especially Germany where all their nuclear power plants were shut down over dubious fears.
While the US will remain the strongest of all, the horrible economic policy decisions, of both parties, will force us into a period of retrenchment. The asset market inflation that created a positive economic experience for many will be replaced by asset deflation going forward for the simple reason that much of our asset base won't have economic value in the retrenchment.
We know how this will end. It will be a liquidity crisis. These crises occur when counter parties stop trusting each other because both know there is garbage in the banking system but not necessarily who has it. Parties with excess liquid assets are loathe to invest those assets in parties that need liquidity. When this happens, the banking system grinds to a halt.
Timing is the only question because intervention has broken historical financial feedback loops. Instead of experiencing negative results due to bad investment decisions, bad investors have been getting bailed out by mysterious "short squeezes" and miracle funding of corrupted credit at the eleventh hour. Expect this to continue until bad debt becomes too much to ignore.