The shooting down of a Ukrainian drone by a NATO warplane over Estonia this week shows how close the proxy war with Russia is to a European-wide escalation.

NATO and the EU leadership are pushing the Baltic states to escalate the war with Russia. Maybe it's time for Moscow to preempt as the best way to avoid all-out war.

It was the first reported case of a NATO fighter jet intercepting a Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). Estonia's Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur announced: "We decided that we needed to take it down… it was meant to hit Russian targets."

His remarks betray a nervousness among the Baltic states about where their support for Ukraine is leading them after Russia warned that it is ready to deliver on threats of retaliation for allowing Ukraine to use their airspace to launch strikes. Effectively, they are forming a new front against Russia, with echoes of Operation Barbarossa when the Nazi Third Reich attacked Russia in a pincer through these same states in 1941. However, in the current situation, they are not sure about the consequences. Russia might have to relieve them of their doubts anyway before it's too late.

Russia's foreign intelligence service (SVR) this week claimed that the Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – are colluding with Ukraine to target deep inside Russia with drones. That claim comes as Ukraine has stepped up air strikes on Russian cities, including the capital, Moscow, killing civilians and destroying key oil infrastructure. A massive €90 billion loan from the European Union is aimed at ramping up drone production in Ukraine in partnership with European manufacturers.

In recent weeks, there has been a surge in incidents of drones appearing in the skies above the Baltic states.

Several seasoned observers, including John Mearsheimer and Glenn Diesen, are predicting that the Kremlin may have no other choice but to escalate with attacks on decision-making centers in the Baltics to restore deterrence. Even though such retaliation could risk direct war with NATO under the U.S.-led alliance's collective defense pact.

The Baltic states appear to be playing a cynical double game under the illusion that their duplicity will spare them kinetic consequences. They claim that they have not permitted Ukraine to use their airspace to attack Russia. The Kiev regime has also claimed it has not requested such permission.