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China is Permanently Reducing Reliance on Imported Oil
China cut crude imports from 11.7 million b/d in February to just under 9 million by late May, and by May imports hit 7.8 million b/d — the lowest since 2018 — with state refinery run rates at 66.3%, a record low for the dataset.
China's 3.6 million b/d import cut, combined with a 3.5 million b/d surge in non-Gulf exports led by the US, offset about 70% of the lost Gulf barrels. This is why the largest supply disruption in oil-market history produced ~$100 Brent instead of the $200 everyone predicted.
Why did this happen and What will happen
1. Simple price rationality. China built a ~1 billion barrel stockpile buying cheap crude in 2023–25. Buying at $95–110 wartime prices when you're sitting on reserves bought at $70–80 is value destruction.