A framework deal has been reached between the United States and Iran to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But does this mean the global food crisis is over?
In this video, we update the "From Hormuz to Hunger" model with the latest developments — including the peace deal, confirmed El Niño, severe Western drought, New World Screwworm confirmed in Texas, and declining U.S. meat processing capacity.
We break down what has changed, what remains locked in, and how close (or far) we are from the original high-end estimates.

The original 225 million figure was never a prediction — it was a boundary condition showing how thin the margins are when multiple systems fail at once. Even with a deal in place, that structure hasn't disappeared.

We're tracking this story with documents, not opinions.